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Thursday, January 3, 2008

NFL Predictions Revisited

As you may remember, back in August I predicted the final standings for the entire NFL. Now it's time to look back and see how I did. Overall I only got 5 team records exactly right, but I was within 2 wins on nearly half(15 teams). I also managed to get 7 of 8 of the division winners right(missing the Bucs in the NFC South) and my Super Bowl winner(Chargers) is playing pretty good football right now. Unfortunately, thats where the good news ends. I didn't get a single wild card team right and my NFC Champion didn't even make the playoffs. If the Chargers can put together a miracle run and win the Super Bowl as predicted though, all will be validated. So yeah...I'm pretty much fucked. I can take slight consolation in the fact that Sports Illustrated had the Saints winning it all, and only correctly picked 4 division winners and 5 playoff teams.

In picking the games each week, I finished just 7 games under .500 for the season, meaning I was only slightly worse than a meth-addicted monkey flipping a coin. On the gambling picks we definitely left something to be desired, going just 30-38, including a 5-10 run at the end.

On to the prediction recaps...

AFC East

  • Patriots: Actual Record: 16-0(Predicted Record: 12-4) - What happened? Randy Moss likes playing for a good team apparently. Spygate also let the Patriots play the "nobody respects us" card for most of the season, and the Patriots exceeded everybody's expectations. Plus the entire city of Boston sold their souls to the devil.
  • Bills: 7-9(10-6) - The Bills were never able to get going. First they dealt with the devastating Kevin Everett injury and then various QB injuries. Marshawn Lynch had a great rookie year that was overshadowed by Adrian Peterson's even better one.
  • Jets: 4-12(5-11) - Was pretty close on this one, other than I had the Dolphins finishing ahead of them. Whoops.
  • Dolphins: 1-15(8-8) - Wow, seven wins off on this one and a Baltimore missed field goal away from being 8 wins off. Can't tell you what happened here. Only major injury was Trent Green, and there's no way he would've gotten them more than a couple more wins. The Dolphins just royally sucked it up this year. But the Big Tuna is in charge now, and it's time to clean house

NFC East

  • Cowboys: 13-3(10-6) - Romo showed that he can play a full season of ball(while leading the league in smiles to boot) and the rest of the offense and the defense were good enough to bail him out when he made mistakes.
  • Giants: 10-6(4-12) - Mostly the defense. Manning managed to put together a few more decent games than I would've expected. Tom Coughlin also managed to avoid his usual December meltdown. If Eli can hold up, they could easily get past the Bucs in round 1.
  • Redskins: 9-7(6-10) - The Redskins were on pace until they got hot at the end of the season and won 4 straight. The loss of Sean Taylor probably allowed this team to come together and play like a team better than they have in the past. Seattle is a little worried about these guys right now.
  • Eagles: 8-8(5-11) - Their schedule ended up being weaker than I expected, plus McNabb managed to make it through the season without a major injury and he played all but two games. Westbrook had another outstanding year

AFC North

  • Steelers: 10-6(12-4) - Both the offensive and defensive lines struggled all year(KSK's Christmas Ape blames Sean Mahan), allowing for losses to shitty teams like the Jets and the Cardinals. As much as I'd like to say they're going to pull it together in the playoffs, it will probably be a short January for the Black and Gold
  • Browns: 10-6(4-12) - Wow, I don't think anyone saw this coming. It was quite the year for Oregon State alumn from Scappoose, Oregon. Sara Jean Underwood scored the Playboy Playmate of the Year, and Derek Anderson pulled off a 10 win season for the Browns.
  • Bengals: 7-9(10-6) - Mostly I forgot that the Bengals just aren't that good.
  • Ravens: 5-11(9-7) - For one thing they waited a year to long to fire Billick. The quality of defense deteriorated more than I accounted for and was unable to offset the predictably inept offense.

NFC North

  • Packers: 13-3(9-7) - Brett Favre. Between his amazing play this year and a more experience supporting cast, the Packers and the Cowboys easily separated themselves from the rest of the NFC. Makes me want to buy me some wranglers and split a cord of wood.
  • Vikings: 8-8(8-8) - How bout that, I nailed this one. These guys played out pretty much as expected, with a solid run game and a mediocre and inconsistent passing game. And the exact same on defense as well. With the amazing play of Purple Jesus, expect Chester Taylor to be starting somewhere else next year. He's too good to be a backup.
  • Lions: 7-9(6-10) - This was looking to be another ridiculously bad call when they were 6-2. Then the Lions we know and love showed up for the second half of the season.
  • Bears: 7-9(9-7) - I don't know why I picked a team to finish above .500 when their QB depth chart is Grossman, Griese, Orton.

AFC South

  • Colts: 13-3(11-5) - The Colts definitely didn't suffer any post-Super Bowl slump, and despite injuries to key players like Marvin Harrison and Dwight Freeney, became one of the few teams to improve their record after a Super Bowl win.
  • Jaguars: 11-5(7-9) - Garrard played nearly mistake free ball all year and Fred Taylor managed to stay healthy. That and a suffocating defense has this team on a serious roll right going into the playoffs.
  • Titans: 10-6(10-6) - Woohoo, got another one here. Despite playing in the toughest conference in the league, the Titans still managed to sneak out a wild card spot.
  • Texans: 8-8(8-8) - Damn, two in one conference. Texans only won twice against playoff teams, but they are showing signs of improvement. By the way that silence is the sound of no one wondering why the Texans took Mario Williams instead of Reggie Bush.

NFC South

  • Bucs: 9-7(4-12) - Who woulda thunk that a 37 year old QB and a 36 year old receiver would lead the Bucs to a division title. Until they lost two straight to finish the season, they were looking like serious trouble for the NFC contenders.
  • Panthers: 7-9(8-8) - The Panthers probably consider this season a success considering the QB problems they had. They started Vinny Testaverde in multiple games for God's sake.
  • Saints: 7-9(11-5) - No excuses for the Saints, if they can manage a 10-6 season and a trip to the NFC Championship game a year after Katrina they should have easily won their division this year. The Saints made me look like an idiot doubly this year as I picked them to win the Super Bowl and I started Drew Brees for most of the year on my dismal fantasy team.
  • Falcons: 4-12(5-11) - Wow! The Falcons had about the worst year you can imagine with the Vick fiasco and then their head coach pulling a Nick Saban and announcing he was quitting by post-it note before the season was even over.

AFC West

  • Chargers: 11-5(11-5) - 6 weeks ago it looked like my other Super Bowl pick was going to miss the playoffs too, then Norv saw some highlights from last year and decided to give LT a shot and the Chargers pulled of 6 straight and #3 seed in the playoffs.
  • Broncos: 7-9(10-6) - Jay Cutler didn't have a bad year, but a shoddy defense doomed the Broncos.
  • Chiefs: 4-12(10-6) - The usually strong AFC West was absolutely horrible this year. The Chiefs couldn't do anything all year.
  • Raiders: 4-12(3-13) - Some people(I won't mention names) were convinced the Raiders were going to make a run at the playoffs this year. I wasn't convinced, but I would be curious to see what this team might've done if JaMarcus Russell hadn't held out during training camp.

NFC West

  • Seahawks: 10-6(10-6) - This team could have been 12-4 if Holmgren hadn't tried to rely on a washed up Shaun Alexander so long.
  • Cardinals: 8-8(9-7) - Like the Panthers, given the QB problems the Cardinals have got to be happy with a .500 season, especially with a new coach.
  • 49ers: 5-11(4-12) - Rookie LB Patrick Willis was amazing this year, but a poor year from Frank Gore and the offense doomed this team from the start.
  • Rams: 3-13(9-7) - Injuries to Stephen Jackson and the offensive line, combined with Marc Bulger playing like shit kept the Rams from doing anything, even in the poor NFC West.

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