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Friday, May 2, 2008

The Derby Winner is...

After re-reading my earlier Derby post, I realized that I completely copped out and never actually picked a winner. I'm going with Court Vision to take it all, and to make up for the trying to hide behind 6 picks, here are some cheerleader pictures:


Thursday, May 1, 2008

Bust out the Bourbon

It's Kentucky Derby time, and that means lots and lots of mint juleps.

  • Fresh mint leaves
  • white sugar
  • bourbon(might I suggest the official derby bourbon: Early Times)

Add a few mint leaves, a couple teaspoons of sugar(if you want to get fancy or you're in a bar, use simple syrup instead), a little bit of ice, and then muddle the shit out of it. Pour in a couple fingers of bourbon, fill with ice and add a sprig of mint as garnish. Enjoy and repeat as necessary. After one or two, its perfectly acceptable to forgo the mint and sugar and just drink the bourbon straight like a real man.


OK, now that we're good and drunk, it's time to partake in the other Kentucky Derby tradition: gambling. While there is no doubt that there are some people that are able to make a living betting on horses and actually know what they're doing when they pick winners(I am not one of these people), the 1st Saturday in May is when everyone else(thats us!) also lays down their bets based on complex formulas derived from methods such as which horse has the coolest name and my personal favorite, throwing darts at a board(only after several mint juleps of course, we're not amateurs here people). Here's the field and their odds, starting from the inside position:

Cool Coal Man (20-1)
Tale of Ekati (15-1)
Anak Nakal (30-1)
Court Vision (20-1)
Eight Belles (20-1)
Z Fortune (15-1)
Big Truck (50-1)
Visionaire (20-1)
Pyro (6-1)
Colonel John (4-1)
Z Humor (30-1)
Smooth Air (20-1)
Bob Black Jack (20-1)
Monba (15-1)
Adriano (30-1)
Denis of Cork (20-1)
Cowboy Cal (20-1)
Recapturetheglory (20-1)
Gayego (15-1)
Big Brown (3-1)

Historically, most of the winners come from the inside half of the track. Since 1900, positions 1 and 5 have been the best, with 12 winners each, but no one has won from the #1 position since 1986. #4 and #10 are next best with 10 winners each. The outside positions are at a clear disadvantage, with positions 17-20 combining for only 2 wins in Derby history. Other good positions are #2 and #8(9 wins apiece) and #3 and #7(8 wins apiece).

The favorites this year are Big Brown and Colonel John. Alot of people just put their money on one of the favorites, assuming the odds makers know more than they do. This is a mistake. Yes the favorites win occasionally, but they also get poor odds, so you'll rarely make any money betting the favorite every time. Don't get me wrong, Big Brown especially is a beast of a horse, but he's inexperienced with only 3 races under his belt(although he won all three, including the Florida Derby). He's also getting a poor pole position, starting from the far outside at position 20. It's been 79 years since a horse won from position 20(and even longer since a horse with only 3 races has won the Derby). He also has had the occasional trouble with cracked hooves, which hasn't slowed him down yet, but Saturday will be the first time any of these horses have gone the full 1 1/4 mile in a race. Combine all that with only getting 3-1 odds, and it's a poor value. You could put your bet on 6 different horses getting 20-1 odds and you'll be getting better odds overall AND have 6 different chances to win. Plus Big Brown sounds like a euphemism for a turd. I ain't betting on anything named after a turd.

Colonel John is getting slightly better odds at 4-1 and actually has a really good pole position(#10) and has a great pedigree for the longer distances and is pretty good safe bet, but if I wanted a safe bet, I'd put my money in CD and go fishing Saturday. We're looking for big money.

Pyro is another safer bet at 6-1. And if you're looking for the media darling, it will probably be the only filly, Eight Belles. There hasn't been a filly in the field since 1999, and only 3 have ever won. Eight Belles definitely has a shot at it, and has proven herself by winning her last 4 races. If she doesn't get to intimidated by the boys, she can do it, but her competition up to this point has been questionable, and I'm just not feeling her.

So here are the horses I'm looking at laying money on*:

Tale of Ekati(15-1) - Great pole position and finished strong to win his final prep race, the Wood Memorial. Since 1970, The Wood Memorial champ has gone on to win the Derby 10 times. More than any other prep race except the Florida Derby. Ekati is also what they call a Dual Qualifier, which means he has a Dosage index of less than 4.0 and weighted on the Experimental Free Handicap within ten pounds of the highweight. What does all that mean? I have no fucking clue, but it's supposed to be a good thing.
Court Vision(20-1) - Has never finished worse than 3rd in his 6 starts and has 3 wins. He can finish great and is also Dual Qualifier. Great pole position at #4.
Z Fortune(15-1) - Good sleeper pick here at the #6 spot
Monba(15-1) - We're getting into the bad part of the pole here, but Monba got a major win at the Blue Grass Stakes and has a great pedigree for the Derby distance.
Denis of Cork(20-1) - Won his first three starts before faltering in his last prep race and finishing fifth. Great pedigree, and is being ridden by last years winning jockey. I'm not real big on Denis of Cork, but I'd still say he's better than a 20-1 shot.
Gayego(15-1) - The #19 spot has never won the Derby, but Gayego is a strong horse. Spent most of his career racing on synthetic surfaces, but won the Arkansas Derby on April 12 while racing on dirt for the first time. The Arkansas is another race that has produced alot of great horses(Curlin, Afleet Alex, and Smarty Jones in recent years). Gayego has never finished worse than second, and is being ridden by Mike Smith who won the 2005 Derby with 50-1 longshot Giacomo. If he was in the first 10 positions, Gayego would probably be my favorite.

Right now Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, and Gayego are my favorites, and Denis of Cork is my least favorite. I really expect the winner to come from this group though. Once you have your pick, don't be afraid to hedge it with some bets on the other horses. When you're getting 15 or 20-1, a couple smaller bets on your 2nd or 3rd choices can mean the difference between losing money and making money.

*Note: 5 out of 5 doctors recommend NOT following this advice. If you value your money at all, you should seriously consider NOT betting on the advice of an anonymous internet blogger.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Big Night for Malkin

Only 10 times in NHL history has a team won their first 7 playoff games of the year. After last nights 5-3 win over the Rangers, the Penguins are number 11. In what will almost certainly jinx them, I also need to mention that 8 of those teams went on to win the Stanley Cup.

It wasn't the prettiest game, and the Penguins high-octane offense spent most of the game back on their heels in their own defensive zone. And while the Rangers controlled most of the game, outshooting the Pens 39-17, Pittsburgh came out on top, thanks to some ridiculously good work in the net by Marc-Andre Fleury and some not so good work by Henrik Lundqvist who gave up 5 goals on those 17 shots. Despite the Rangers continuosly peppering Fleury with pucks, they were still 0-5 on power plays, including two 5-on-3's in the second period. I'm not a hockey expert by any means, but it seems to me a team that makes it to the second round of the playoffs should be able to score some goals when they have a 2 man advantage on the ice. The Penguins on the other hand converted both of their power plays with goals by Evgeni Malkin, who had been announced as a Hart Trophy candidate just hours before. And while only 2 other NHL teams have been able to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series, Rangers Captain Jaromir Jagr still hasn't given up:
"I have a very funny feeling about this series. It's not over. It's just my feeling. I don't know how many believe me, but we'll see."

Coincidentally, the last NHL team to erase a 3-0 deficit was another NY team, the Islanders, against the Penguins. Nontheless, we'll see how Jagr's feeling after the Penguins put the final nail in their coffin Thursday night, in what Jagr is saying could be the last game of his career.

Edit: NY Rangers winger, Sean Avery, was hospitalized last night with a ruptured spleen. He was apparently hurt after taking a hit in the first period of last nights game and played the rest of the game with the ruptured spleen. Ain't that some shitty luck? Just as it looked like he might be able to get an early start on his summer internship at Vogue he has to go and get hurt. Seriously though, hope he's all right.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Now lets do it in New York

The Penguins are f**king scorching. After easily sweeping the Ottawa Senators in round 1, they're sitting on a 2-0 series lead against former Penguin great Jaromir Jagr and his NY Rangers. Offense, defense, they're doing it all.

Their second round series didn't start great though. In game 1 last Friday, things looked bleak. Just 4 minutes into the 2nd period and the Pens were trailing 3-0 and struggling to stay in the game. Jarkko Ruuto and Pascal Dupuis put the game within reach with goals just 14 seconds apart in the middle of the 2nd, and early in the 3rd, Marian Hossa and Petr Sykora added two more just 20 seconds apart to put the Pens up. The Rangers managed to tie it, but with the home crowd behind them, the Penguins added an Evgeni Malkin power play goal with just 1:41 left to seal the dramatic comeback victory and hand the Rangers their first road loss of the playoffs. It wouldn't be their last.

Game 2 was a far cry from the offensive fireworks of game 1 as the two goaltenders combined to stop 56 of 57 shots. Unfortunately for the Rangers, the single missed save came courtesy of Henrik Lundqvist when Evgeni Malkin shed Ranger defenseman Marc Staal and flipped a pass to Jordan Staal(Marc's brother) who made a great puck move and lifted it over Lundqvist. The single goal would be all that the Pens needed for the victory, but Adam Hall added an empty net goal at the end of the game anyway.

Tonight will be a big game for both teams as the Rangers try to get their momentum back behind the home crowd of Madison Square Garden while the Penguins look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead.

Monday, April 28, 2008

Steelers Draft Recap

I'll admit I was surprised at the direction the Steelers went in this draft. Despite obviously needing help on both lines, the Steelers used their first two picks on skill positions, taking Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall in the first round and Texas WR Limas Sweed in the second. While I still think they should've done more to bolster their lines, they got great value with both players. Mendenhall was a projected top-15 pick, so when he fell into the Steelers lap at #23, he became a no-brainer. At 5'10" and 225 lbs, he'll add some power inside running to compliment Fast Willie Parker's outside speed. Mendenhall ain't no slouch in a footrace either though, putting up low 4.40's in the 40, mere hundreths of a second behind Parker's times. He can also block, and can catch as well, although Illinois didn't use him much to catch balls out of the backfield.

Limas Sweed was another great value pick. Easily one of the top 3 receivers in the draft and projected by most to go in the first round, he also fell to the Steelers who snagged him late in the 2nd round with the 53rd pick. Sweed will bring the size to the WR spot that Big Ben has been looking for. With the Steelers receiver production doing a nosedive once you get past Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, he'll also provide some much needed depth at the position. He's not the fastest guy on the field, but at 6'4" and 212 lbs, he should be a nightmarish matchup for alot of cornerbacks. His senior season was cut short with a wrist injury that ended up needing surgery, but Coach Tomlin is confident that that isn't an issue. Ben is no doubt excited about this pick.

The 3rd and 4th rounds were more of what I was expecting from the Steelers, with UCLA DE Bruce Davis coming in the 3rd. Davis isn't big enough to play DE in the NFL, but shouldn't have a problem transition to outside linebacker in Dick LeBeau's 3-4 defense. The Steelers have successfully converted several other undersized DE's into great linebackers like former Pro Bowlers Joey Porter and Greg Lloyd, and current backers Clark Haggans and James Harrison. Davis has good speed and is 2nd in UCLA history with 29 sacks. He should be able to immediately contribute on special teams and provide some depth at linebacker.

In the 4th round, director of football operations Kevin Colbert finally got Ben some protection up front with Texas OT Tony Hills. With only one OT signed after next season, drafting at least one offensive linemen was a necessity, and Hills coaches think he is better than his former teammate Jonathan Scott, who is now playing in Detroit. Hill has been hampered by numerous injuries in his young career and likely won't be a contributor for at least a year or two.

The 5th round pick came as quite the surprise as the Steelers took Oregon QB Dennis Dixon, despite already having a solid backup to Big Ben in Charlie Batch. They may be thinking that Chaz Batch won't be sticking around much longer, or they might look to groom Dixon into a slash-type WR similar to the way they used Antwaan Randle El. He's still rehabbing the ACL he destroyed last fall, but is extremely athletic and a good value for a 5th rounder. On the downside, he wasn't good enough to start over Kellen Clemens at Oregon.

In the 6th and 7th round, the Steelers got some more defensive guys with inside linebacker Mike Humpal out of Iowa and free safety Ryan Mundy out of West Virginia. Both these guys will probably only make the team as special teamers, but could also see some time on defense as the Steelers aren't very deep at ILB and had some obvious problems at safety(I'm looking at you Anthony "Guarantee" Smith).

I don't pretend to have any sort of talent at judging which college players will become great NFL players, but overall I'm satisfied with the draft. I would have liked to see some more linemen taken, but like Coach Tomlin said, “There are two schools of thought to protect a quarterback, You can get linemen, or you can get him weapons.”

Thursday, April 24, 2008

2008 NFL Mock Draft

Everybody else has got a mock draft. I wouldn't want my 2 readers to feel left out.

Miami: LSU - the entire team. Send all the current Dolphins down to the SEC(they should be able to manage a 3rd or 4th place finish).
St Louis: Erika Jensen - The Rams won Super Bowl XXXIV with a former grocery store clerk, and Kurt Warner didn't even win a grocery bagging trophy.
Atlanta: Ingrid Newkirk - She can probably throw as well as Michael Vick, and she's nicer to dogs
Oakland: Amy Winehouse - She won't even have to dress up to fit in with the Raider Nation
Kansas City: Chris Long, Virginia - The Chiefs go after another bad ass DE. With Long on one side and Jarred Allen on the other, the Chiefs pass rush will be unstoppable. Shit!
New York Jets: no pick - The Mangenius is tired of getting booed every year for his draft pick. Not this year.
New England: George W. Bush - If you get caught illegally spying, the best course of action is to just make it legal. Problem solved.
Baltimore: Erik Olsen - If anybody can get this geriatric defense back to the Super Bowl, it's the President of the AARP
Cincinnati: Dr. Phil McGraw - Marvin Lewis turned down the two first round draft picks that the Redskins offered him for a player he doesn't expect to play this year(Chad Johnson). For what? Just to teach him a lesson? Somebody needs to sit these two down and straighten some shit out.
New Orleans: Kenny Phillips, University of Miami - The Saints aren't going to take a chance on another weak hurricane season and are bringing in their own (Miami) Hurricanes to give them something to play for.
Buffalo: Van Chancellor, LSU - The Bills are the only team to make 4 straight Super Bowls and lose them all. Van Chancellor and the LSU Lady Tigers have one-upped them by making 5 straight NCAA Womens Final Four appearances without making the Championship game. It's a match made in heaven.
Denver: Neil Flynn, Scrubs - Apparently nobody in Denver knows how to pick up the trash. Time to bring in a professional.
Carolina: More lesbian cheerleaders with violent tendencies - Seriously, that was awesome and really the only thing I remember about the Panthers over the last 5 years.
Chicago: Jack Daniels - Can Jack Daniels do for Kyle Orton what Gatorade did for Michael Jordan?
Detroit: DeSean Jackson, California - Matt Millen is positive they're one star receiver away from winning a Super Bowl
Arizona: Tedy Bruschi - If you're looking for a championship, bring in an aging brute who's past his prime. Just ask the Suns.
Minnesota: Tiger Woods - Have you seen Tiger's boat? No more paying to rent boats for your bye week sex parties.
Houston: Luigi - The Texans took a chance and took Mario Williams instead of Reggie Bush in the 2006 Draft and it paid off. This year Texans owner Bob McNair gets confused and goes after who he thinks is Williams' brother.
Philadelphia: Calais Campbell, Miami - Donovan McNabb forces this trade after management is unable to convince him that Calais isn't actually related to the Campbell's Chunky Soup people.
Tampa Bay: Bruce Springsteen - The Boss had two hits with "Pink Cadillac" and "Cadillac Ranch". Does he have what it takes to get Cadillac Williams back to 2005 form?
Washington: Song Girls, USC - The Redskins are a perennial contender for hottest cheerleaders in the NFL, but you don't stay that way without going after the top up-and-coming talent.
Dallas: Michael Vick, Leavenworth Penitentiary - They already got Tank Johnson, they got Pacman Jones. If they can get Chris Henry from Tennesse they'll get a bulk discount on lawyer fees
Pittsburgh: Jaleel White - Maybe he can loan Santonio Holmes and Jeff Reed some suspenders to keep their pants on. Seriously guys, pants on.
Tennessee: Colt Brennan, Hawai'i - Sure they already have Vince Young, but coming from Hawai'i, Colt can probably get some kick-ass weed. And if you got him on the payroll, he's less likely to snitch to the cops.
Seattle: The Sonics - The only way the Seahawks are gonna get a championship banner to hang in the stadium any time soon
Jacksonville: Marcus Howard - The Georgia DE was the MVP of the Sugar Bowl. And when life hands you (Cleo) Lemon, you're gonna need some sugar to make lemonade.
San Diego: Barry Bonds - He's currently unemployed so you can probably get him cheap, and as Shawne Merriman has shown, the Chargers don't have a problem with steroid use.
Dallas: pick traded to Tennessee for Chris Henry - cause Jerry Jones is fucking crazy. Tennessee takes Jarious Jackson from the CFL's BC Lions. Another QB they don't need, but now they've got the Tennessee ganja market cornered between Colt Brennan's Maui Wowee and Jackson's BC Bud. If they can ever find somebody from Humboldt State they won't even need to sell tickets to make money.
San Francisco: Some gay guy - Not that there's anything wrong with that. Do you have any idea how hard it is to come up with 32 different jokes for one post?
Green Bay: Shane Stant - The Packers need somebody to take out Aaron Rodgers so they can convince Favre to come back.
New York Giants: Tiki Barber - They won the Super Bowl without him, imagine how good they'd be with him.

Friday, April 18, 2008

On to Round 2

Flash back to a year ago and you'd see the Penguins season ending in Ottawa with a loss to the Senators, capping a 4 games to 1 loss in the first round of the playoffs. Skip ahead to the last game of the regular season this year and you'd see Pittsburgh taking the ice against Philadelphia. A win against the Flyers would give them the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference and a first round matchup against Boston. A loss and they'd fall to the #2 seed and rematch against Ottawa. So the Penguins did what anybody would do and benched their star Sidney Crosby. The move and ensuing loss led many people, including the Ottawa coach, to speculate that the Penguins lost on purpose to set up a chance for revenge against the Senators. Whether that was the game plan or not doesn't really matter. What does matter is the Penguins made the Senators look like the Mighty Ducks...before Gordon Bombay taught them the value of teamwork and the flying V. It didn't take long for the Senators to see what was in store for them as Gary Roberts put one in the net just 68 seconds into the game. Petr Sykora added another first period goal on route to a 4-0 route of the Senators, and the Penguins never looked back, and finished the 4 game sweep in the same building where their season ended last year.

Sidney Crosby overcame a scoreless first game to finish with a team-high 8 points on 2 goals and 6 assists, and Evgeni Malkin was right behind him with 2 goals and 5 assists. Sykora was the goal leader with 3 as the Penguins outshot the Senators 161-112. It wasn't just offense though, goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury set a team record by allowing just 5 goals in the series. His .955 save percentage helped quell any playoff doubts Penguins fans had about the young goalie. Solid penalty-killing(Ottawa converted just 1 of 11 power plays) kept the Senators from ever having a chance, as they were outscored 16-5 while leading a total of just 4:28 in the series

It was the Penguins first sweep of a playoff series in 16 years, and the 4 wins improved Coach Michel Therrien's career playoff record to 11-10. The sweep will give the Pens plenty of confidence going into their second round matchup(likely against either the Rangers or the Flyers), but will also give them a week to rest, which will be especially welcome for Gary Roberts who didn't play the last two games of the series after suffering a sore groin.