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Tuesday, April 8, 2008

How to lose money

You see? That's why I'm not a very good gambler. If you read everything I wrote yesterday except for my picks at the end, you would have thought I was picking Kansas and probably the under. I had all the information I needed, and I ignored it and went with Memphis instead. Look at some of the points I made in yesterday's post:

  • Kansas has a size advantage
  • Kansas has more depth
  • Memphis starters played alot of minutes on Saturday
  • Kansas was able to spread the minutes around
  • Memphis has free throw shooting problems

And yet somehow I still talked myself into Memphis AND giving up points. In the end, it was their old nemesis the free throw that cost them the game. Sure they were making a ton of them in the last couple games, but those were with comfortable leads. They did pretty good last night too until the pressure mounted and they had to make them. Even then, Memphis had the win and the spread covered until that son-of-a-bitch Chalmers dropped in a prayer from behind the arc to tie it with just seconds remaining. And the over...well, I wasn't even close on that one. Even with an overtime they couldn't get past the 147 mark. I know hindsight is 20/20, but after huge emotional wins like Kansas and Memphis saw on Saturday and 2 1/2 weeks of high tempo basketball, I should've seen the under coming. In fact, I think a little research is due to see what percentage of title games hit the under. There might be a pattern there that we can use in the future.

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