Super Bowl Betting Extravaganza

Super Bowl weekend. The last weekend of football until next fall(unless you count the Pro-Bowl, but I don't). I'm sure you've heard all the analysis you can stand by now...Patriots are gonna win in a blowout, Patriots are gonna win but the Giants will keep it close, Giants have a chance for an upset. Then there's the QB talk, Eli Manning has finally arrived, is Brady hurt or not, oh look, someone proposed to Brady, blah, blah, blah. We've had two weeks of this shit, lets get to the good stuff.

The Super Bowl is one weekend where you don't have to know shit about football to lose money gambling. Hell you don't even have to care about football, you can bet on just about anything you want. Yeah you can bet on the game itself(I'm taking the Giants +12 over the Patriots*), if you think the Giants can win it outright, you can lay a bet at +375** for them to win. You can bet on the combined final score(I'm saying over 54). But you can do that for any game. You can also bet on plenty of stats-based bets, but those are boring(mine are listed below). This is the only weekend you can bet on the crazy stuff though. Why wait until the end of the game, lets bet on the coinflip. I've got a foolproof system...Tails never Fails(-105). It rhymes, how can it lose? And you know what, I'm taking the Giants to win the coin toss(-105). But why even wait until the game starts? Do you think the entire Fox pregame crew will pick the Patriots to win? I say no(somebody's going out on a limb and taking the underdog), so I'm betting they don't(+130). What about you American Idol fans that tuned into Fox to see the commercials. Guess what? Idol Alumn Jordin Sparks is singing the National Anthem. How long do you think it takes her? I say it's less than 1 minute 42 seconds and I'm putting my money where my mouth is(-115). I know you're thinking that's a stupid bet, but you've got to look deeper. Jordin is still young and not real famous yet, so she's gonna be a bit nervous. You always rush speaking and singing things when you're nervous. If she was a more established prima donna, you'd want to take the over. Not only would she be more comfortable with the crowd, but she'd probably throw a little personal flair into it like a extended high notes and other shit that would eat up extra seconds.

What about during the game? How many times do you think the camera shows Archie Manning? Vegas has the over/under set at 6.5, but I'm not betting this one. I think Peyton being at the game will take some of the spotlight off of Archie, but they may be sitting close enough together that they're both in the shots. Too many variables for me. But I do think that there is gonna be plenty of talk about Peyton Manning, so I'm taking the over(line at 5.5) on Peyton mentions by game announcer Joe Buck(-125).

No on to the halftime show. If I were Tom Petty, what song would I open with. It's gotta be either "I Won't Back Down" or "Runnin' Down a Dream." I'm going with "I Won't Back Down"(+500). Actually fuck it, I'm also laying a wager on "Runnin' Down a Dream"(+400). The beauty of this one is that they're both paying better than +200 so as long as it's one of those two, I come out on top. I'm also laying down a very small wager saying that Petty lights up a joint during the halftime show(+10,000). Surprisingly, thats also the same odds that you'd get betting that Britney Spears streaks during the game. How are those the same odds? Don't you think that there's a much better chance of Petty smoking a doobie? Wait, what the hell am I saying. If Britney wasn't in the middle of an extended "vacation" at her local psych ward I'd totally lay money on that. She's in what Bill Simmons calls the "Tyson Zone" in which nothing she could do would surprise you. As far as I'm concerned there are 3 lifetime members to the Tyson Zone. Mike Tyson(of course, it's his Zone), Tom Cruise, and the latest member is our very own Britney Spears.

The big one is always who will the MVP thank first. There are the obvious choices: God(+250), family(+200), and teammates(+200). The odds say the Patriots are gonna win, which means the obvious choice for MVP is Tom Brady. I don't see him as a big God man, and he's not married so I think family is out. You could go with the underdog and say he thanks no one(+600), but that's a long shot. Teammates is probably the safe bet, but at only 2/1 odds, it's not a good value. Given everything thats happened to the Patriots this year and the way they all stood by Belichick during the Spygate scandal, I'm betting on coach getting thanked first(+500).

Here are my other bets:

Giants score first(+140): Since I'm betting they win the toss, I say they go down and kick a field goal right off the bat
Giants score last(+135): Probably playing from behind, so they'll score and then Patriots run out the clock
1st score will be a FG or Safety(+160): Going with the value bet here
Total FGs by both teams - over 3.5(+150): The Patriots D is good for at least 2 stops in the redzone, so we only need 2 more from either team
Patriots don't convert a 4th down(+135): I don't think this will be a close enough game where Brady has to convert a 4th down late to stay in the game. Beware if they win the toss though, Belichick wouldn't be afraid to go for it on 4th to get the first score.
Manning doesn't throw an INT(+180): He hasn't thrown one yet in the postseason, so I'm taking the value bet here
Amani Toomer - Total receiving yards is an odd number(-105): Why not, I say 47 yards
Wes Welker total receptions - over 7.5(+125): He won't have many yards, but he'll have 8 or 9 quick catches when Moss is getting double teamed
Longest single reception in the game: We're gonna do another double bet. Plaxico Burress(+400) and Jabar Gaffney(+700)
Team with most turnovers - Patriots(+240): Again, sometimes you gotta take a chance on the value bets.

So there you have it. The No Doubt About It, Can't Lose, Way Kick Ass Copperhouse Retirement Plan.

One more side note. If the Patriots lose, you can blame the Boston Globe for jinxing them by pre-selling "19-0: The Historic Championship Season of New England's Unbeatable Patriots". I can't believe I can't bet on how long it takes some Boston masshole to burn down the Boston Globe offices if the Patriots lose. That's just un-American.

*Note: 5 out of 5 doctors recommend NOT following this advice. If you value your money at all, you should seriously consider NOT betting on the advice of an anonymous internet blogger.
**If the odds are listed as a positive number like +375, that means for every $100 you wagered you'd stand to win $375, plus you'd get your original $100 bet back. If it's a negative number like -105, then you'd have to risk $105 to win $100 plus your original $105 back. Of course you can also bet in much smaller increments, like $10.5 to win $10 or something.