Friday, May 2, 2008
The Derby Winner is...
After re-reading my earlier Derby post, I realized that I completely copped out and never actually picked a winner. I'm going with Court Vision to take it all, and to make up for the trying to hide behind 6 picks, here are some cheerleader pictures:
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Bust out the Bourbon
It's Kentucky Derby time, and that means lots and lots of mint juleps.
OK, now that we're good and drunk, it's time to partake in the other Kentucky Derby tradition: gambling. While there is no doubt that there are some people that are able to make a living betting on horses and actually know what they're doing when they pick winners(I am not one of these people), the 1st Saturday in May is when everyone else(thats us!) also lays down their bets based on complex formulas derived from methods such as which horse has the coolest name and my personal favorite, throwing darts at a board(only after several mint juleps of course, we're not amateurs here people). Here's the field and their odds, starting from the inside position:
Cool Coal Man (20-1)
Tale of Ekati (15-1)
Anak Nakal (30-1)
Court Vision (20-1)
Eight Belles (20-1)
Z Fortune (15-1)
Big Truck (50-1)
Visionaire (20-1)
Pyro (6-1)
Colonel John (4-1)
Z Humor (30-1)
Smooth Air (20-1)
Bob Black Jack (20-1)
Monba (15-1)
Adriano (30-1)
Denis of Cork (20-1)
Cowboy Cal (20-1)
Recapturetheglory (20-1)
Gayego (15-1)
Big Brown (3-1)
Historically, most of the winners come from the inside half of the track. Since 1900, positions 1 and 5 have been the best, with 12 winners each, but no one has won from the #1 position since 1986. #4 and #10 are next best with 10 winners each. The outside positions are at a clear disadvantage, with positions 17-20 combining for only 2 wins in Derby history. Other good positions are #2 and #8(9 wins apiece) and #3 and #7(8 wins apiece).
The favorites this year are Big Brown and Colonel John. Alot of people just put their money on one of the favorites, assuming the odds makers know more than they do. This is a mistake. Yes the favorites win occasionally, but they also get poor odds, so you'll rarely make any money betting the favorite every time. Don't get me wrong, Big Brown especially is a beast of a horse, but he's inexperienced with only 3 races under his belt(although he won all three, including the Florida Derby). He's also getting a poor pole position, starting from the far outside at position 20. It's been 79 years since a horse won from position 20(and even longer since a horse with only 3 races has won the Derby). He also has had the occasional trouble with cracked hooves, which hasn't slowed him down yet, but Saturday will be the first time any of these horses have gone the full 1 1/4 mile in a race. Combine all that with only getting 3-1 odds, and it's a poor value. You could put your bet on 6 different horses getting 20-1 odds and you'll be getting better odds overall AND have 6 different chances to win. Plus Big Brown sounds like a euphemism for a turd. I ain't betting on anything named after a turd.
Colonel John is getting slightly better odds at 4-1 and actually has a really good pole position(#10) and has a great pedigree for the longer distances and is pretty good safe bet, but if I wanted a safe bet, I'd put my money in CD and go fishing Saturday. We're looking for big money.
Pyro is another safer bet at 6-1. And if you're looking for the media darling, it will probably be the only filly, Eight Belles. There hasn't been a filly in the field since 1999, and only 3 have ever won. Eight Belles definitely has a shot at it, and has proven herself by winning her last 4 races. If she doesn't get to intimidated by the boys, she can do it, but her competition up to this point has been questionable, and I'm just not feeling her.
So here are the horses I'm looking at laying money on*:
Tale of Ekati(15-1) - Great pole position and finished strong to win his final prep race, the Wood Memorial. Since 1970, The Wood Memorial champ has gone on to win the Derby 10 times. More than any other prep race except the Florida Derby. Ekati is also what they call a Dual Qualifier, which means he has a Dosage index of less than 4.0 and weighted on the Experimental Free Handicap within ten pounds of the highweight. What does all that mean? I have no fucking clue, but it's supposed to be a good thing.
Court Vision(20-1) - Has never finished worse than 3rd in his 6 starts and has 3 wins. He can finish great and is also Dual Qualifier. Great pole position at #4.
Z Fortune(15-1) - Good sleeper pick here at the #6 spot
Monba(15-1) - We're getting into the bad part of the pole here, but Monba got a major win at the Blue Grass Stakes and has a great pedigree for the Derby distance.
Denis of Cork(20-1) - Won his first three starts before faltering in his last prep race and finishing fifth. Great pedigree, and is being ridden by last years winning jockey. I'm not real big on Denis of Cork, but I'd still say he's better than a 20-1 shot.
Gayego(15-1) - The #19 spot has never won the Derby, but Gayego is a strong horse. Spent most of his career racing on synthetic surfaces, but won the Arkansas Derby on April 12 while racing on dirt for the first time. The Arkansas is another race that has produced alot of great horses(Curlin, Afleet Alex, and Smarty Jones in recent years). Gayego has never finished worse than second, and is being ridden by Mike Smith who won the 2005 Derby with 50-1 longshot Giacomo. If he was in the first 10 positions, Gayego would probably be my favorite.
Right now Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, and Gayego are my favorites, and Denis of Cork is my least favorite. I really expect the winner to come from this group though. Once you have your pick, don't be afraid to hedge it with some bets on the other horses. When you're getting 15 or 20-1, a couple smaller bets on your 2nd or 3rd choices can mean the difference between losing money and making money.
*Note: 5 out of 5 doctors recommend NOT following this advice. If you value your money at all, you should seriously consider NOT betting on the advice of an anonymous internet blogger.
- Fresh mint leaves
- white sugar
- bourbon(might I suggest the official derby bourbon: Early Times)
Add a few mint leaves, a couple teaspoons of sugar(if you want to get fancy or you're in a bar, use simple syrup instead), a little bit of ice, and then muddle the shit out of it. Pour in a couple fingers of bourbon, fill with ice and add a sprig of mint as garnish. Enjoy and repeat as necessary. After one or two, its perfectly acceptable to forgo the mint and sugar and just drink the bourbon straight like a real man.
OK, now that we're good and drunk, it's time to partake in the other Kentucky Derby tradition: gambling. While there is no doubt that there are some people that are able to make a living betting on horses and actually know what they're doing when they pick winners(I am not one of these people), the 1st Saturday in May is when everyone else(thats us!) also lays down their bets based on complex formulas derived from methods such as which horse has the coolest name and my personal favorite, throwing darts at a board(only after several mint juleps of course, we're not amateurs here people). Here's the field and their odds, starting from the inside position:
Cool Coal Man (20-1)
Tale of Ekati (15-1)
Anak Nakal (30-1)
Court Vision (20-1)
Eight Belles (20-1)
Z Fortune (15-1)
Big Truck (50-1)
Visionaire (20-1)
Pyro (6-1)
Colonel John (4-1)
Z Humor (30-1)
Smooth Air (20-1)
Bob Black Jack (20-1)
Monba (15-1)
Adriano (30-1)
Denis of Cork (20-1)
Cowboy Cal (20-1)
Recapturetheglory (20-1)
Gayego (15-1)
Big Brown (3-1)
Historically, most of the winners come from the inside half of the track. Since 1900, positions 1 and 5 have been the best, with 12 winners each, but no one has won from the #1 position since 1986. #4 and #10 are next best with 10 winners each. The outside positions are at a clear disadvantage, with positions 17-20 combining for only 2 wins in Derby history. Other good positions are #2 and #8(9 wins apiece) and #3 and #7(8 wins apiece).
The favorites this year are Big Brown and Colonel John. Alot of people just put their money on one of the favorites, assuming the odds makers know more than they do. This is a mistake. Yes the favorites win occasionally, but they also get poor odds, so you'll rarely make any money betting the favorite every time. Don't get me wrong, Big Brown especially is a beast of a horse, but he's inexperienced with only 3 races under his belt(although he won all three, including the Florida Derby). He's also getting a poor pole position, starting from the far outside at position 20. It's been 79 years since a horse won from position 20(and even longer since a horse with only 3 races has won the Derby). He also has had the occasional trouble with cracked hooves, which hasn't slowed him down yet, but Saturday will be the first time any of these horses have gone the full 1 1/4 mile in a race. Combine all that with only getting 3-1 odds, and it's a poor value. You could put your bet on 6 different horses getting 20-1 odds and you'll be getting better odds overall AND have 6 different chances to win. Plus Big Brown sounds like a euphemism for a turd. I ain't betting on anything named after a turd.
Colonel John is getting slightly better odds at 4-1 and actually has a really good pole position(#10) and has a great pedigree for the longer distances and is pretty good safe bet, but if I wanted a safe bet, I'd put my money in CD and go fishing Saturday. We're looking for big money.
Pyro is another safer bet at 6-1. And if you're looking for the media darling, it will probably be the only filly, Eight Belles. There hasn't been a filly in the field since 1999, and only 3 have ever won. Eight Belles definitely has a shot at it, and has proven herself by winning her last 4 races. If she doesn't get to intimidated by the boys, she can do it, but her competition up to this point has been questionable, and I'm just not feeling her.
So here are the horses I'm looking at laying money on*:
Tale of Ekati(15-1) - Great pole position and finished strong to win his final prep race, the Wood Memorial. Since 1970, The Wood Memorial champ has gone on to win the Derby 10 times. More than any other prep race except the Florida Derby. Ekati is also what they call a Dual Qualifier, which means he has a Dosage index of less than 4.0 and weighted on the Experimental Free Handicap within ten pounds of the highweight. What does all that mean? I have no fucking clue, but it's supposed to be a good thing.
Court Vision(20-1) - Has never finished worse than 3rd in his 6 starts and has 3 wins. He can finish great and is also Dual Qualifier. Great pole position at #4.
Z Fortune(15-1) - Good sleeper pick here at the #6 spot
Monba(15-1) - We're getting into the bad part of the pole here, but Monba got a major win at the Blue Grass Stakes and has a great pedigree for the Derby distance.
Denis of Cork(20-1) - Won his first three starts before faltering in his last prep race and finishing fifth. Great pedigree, and is being ridden by last years winning jockey. I'm not real big on Denis of Cork, but I'd still say he's better than a 20-1 shot.
Gayego(15-1) - The #19 spot has never won the Derby, but Gayego is a strong horse. Spent most of his career racing on synthetic surfaces, but won the Arkansas Derby on April 12 while racing on dirt for the first time. The Arkansas is another race that has produced alot of great horses(Curlin, Afleet Alex, and Smarty Jones in recent years). Gayego has never finished worse than second, and is being ridden by Mike Smith who won the 2005 Derby with 50-1 longshot Giacomo. If he was in the first 10 positions, Gayego would probably be my favorite.
Right now Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, and Gayego are my favorites, and Denis of Cork is my least favorite. I really expect the winner to come from this group though. Once you have your pick, don't be afraid to hedge it with some bets on the other horses. When you're getting 15 or 20-1, a couple smaller bets on your 2nd or 3rd choices can mean the difference between losing money and making money.
*Note: 5 out of 5 doctors recommend NOT following this advice. If you value your money at all, you should seriously consider NOT betting on the advice of an anonymous internet blogger.
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